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Open Access | Published on October 5, 2025

Development and Validation of a Representative Driving Cycle for Metro Manila: A Data-Driven Approach to Assess Vehicle Emissions and Inform Emission Reduction Strategies

Corpus Robert Michael Baria
Biona J
Abstract

Metro Manila's severe traffic congestion and air pollu-tion demand accurate emission assessment tools. Standard driving cycles often fail to capture unique local conditions, leading to flawed inventories. This paper details the data-driven development and valida-tion of the Metro Manila Driving Cycle (MMDC). Re-al-world vehicle data (GPS, OBD-II) were processed to construct the MMDC via micro-trip clustering and synthesis. The MMDC features significantly lower average speed (~20.3 km/h) and higher idle time (~29%) than standard cycles (FTP-75, WLTC Class 3b). Validation against field data confirmed its representa-tiveness, with kinematic parameters and speed-acceleration probability distributions showing strong correlation. The MMDC enables more accurate vehicle emission estimations and informs targeted emission reduction strategies for Metro Manila.

Keywords
Driving Cycle, Emissions, Philippines, Urban Mobility, Markov Chain