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Open Access | Published on December 5, 2018

The role of catchment properties on the importance of initial hydrologic conditions for seasonal hydrological forecasting in alpine areas

Stergiadi Maria
Avesani Diego
Righetti Maurizio
Borga Marco
Zaramella Mattia
Abstract

A well-known approach to seasonal hydrological forecasting involves the use of ensembles as forcing to a hydrological model, based either on historical meteorological data (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP) or on forecasts produced by one or more dynamic climate models (multi-model approach). This work aims at investigating the role of initial hydrologic conditions (ICs) and seasonal climate forecast skill on the accuracy of seasonal hydrologic predictions in alpine regions, as a function of catchment properties. The Integrated Catchment-scale HYdrological Model (ICHYMOD) is employed, forcing it with historical meteorological data and multi-model ensemble climate predictions produced by the climate forecast systems NCEP CFSv2 and ECMWF SEAS5 (the latter analysis is not included in the present work). The hydro-climatic prediction system is tested on two catchments in the Eastern Italian Alps, that are different in terms of orography and soil/groundwater storage capacity. The diverse catchment properties result in differential parameterization of the subsurface processes in the hydrological model, hence in a different impact of the initial hydrologic conditions on the seasonal runoff predictions.

Keywords
seasonal hydrological forecasting, alpine area